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UBS Expects Xiaomi YU7 Sales to Reach 85K/ 430K Units in Next 2 Yrs; Investor Concerns Over Tesla Supply Chain Overblown
09 Jul 2025 10:26
UBS's report covered XIAOMI-W (01810.HK), of which YU7 manifested 289,000 units in pre-orders within the first hour after opening on June 26, sparking market concerns about potential loss of market share among peers and supply chain impacts.

As investors debate who Xiaomi YU7's direct competitors are, the most frequently mentioned models include Tesla (TSLA.US)'s Model Y, LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)'s L6, XPENG-W (09868.HK)'s G9, Zeekr (ZK.US)'s 7X, AITO M7, Audi Q5, BMW X3, and Mercedes-Benz GLC.

UBS expected Xiaomi to become a key customer for suppliers and believed investor concerns about the impact on automotive suppliers' profitability are overdone. In Xiaomi's supply chain, UBS was optimistic about TUOPU GROUP (601689.SH) and DESAY SV (002920.SZ).

Under the base case, UBS assumed Xiaomi YU7 sales will whop 85,000 and 430,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively; 30%, 15%, and 15% of YU7 sales will stem from customers who may have originally chosen Tesla Model Y, Li Auto L6, and AITO M7; the NPM of Xiaomi YU7 orders is 2% lower than the overall NPM of auto parts companies.
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Stock & Type Code Strike(Call Level) Last Effective Gearing
XIAOMI (C) 15358 68.05 (-) 0.087 5.0 X
XIAOMI (C) 15359 63.93 (-) 0.099 5.1 X
XIAOMI (C) 14470 61 (-) 0.103 5.4 X
XIAOMI (C) 14839 55.05 (-) 0.102 7.1 X
XIAOMI (P) 14219 46.45 (-) 0.077 3.3 X
XIAOMI (P) 16080 38.53 (-) 0.039 3.6 X
XIAOMI (Bull) 54565 55.1 (55.5) 0.027 21.2 X
XIAOMI (Bull) 69255 53.1 (53.5) 0.049 11.7 X
XIAOMI (Bear) 57008 63.9 (63.5) 0.055 10.4 X
XIAOMI (Bear) 54560 61.2 (60.8) 0.033 17.4 X
LI (C) 17186 138.98 (-) 0.151 3.4 X
LI (Bull) 57197 89.4 (93.4) 0.053 4.3 X
LI (Bull) 55164 80.9 (84.9) 0.070 3.2 X
LI (Bear) 54688 144 (140) 0.058 3.9 X
XPENG (Bull) 63561 60.5 (62) 0.112 6.3 X
TSLA (C) 10688 420 (-) 0.340 4.5 X
TSLA (C) 10591 300 (-) 0.570 5.1 X
TSLA (P) 10692 280 (-) 0.520 2.9 X
TSLA (P) 10604 190 (-) 0.051 5.6 X

 

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